Patawalonga Lake forecasting system

The Patawalonga Lake, located south of Adelaide, plays an important role in flood mitigation during extreme weather.  It reduces the risk of flooding in Adelaide by manual gate operation which provides additional storage for flooding.


However, decisions need to be made in the days before heavy rainfall and tides leading to a flooding event, to offer the greatest benefits to residents. 


JBP developed a river and coastal forecasting system to support the lake operations, linking DEWNR operations to Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecasts.  It accounts for both coastal and fluvial processes, the upcoming astronomical tide, storm surge, rainfall, soil infiltration, runoff/routing to the lower system, and the complex hydraulic operations between the various outlets.  Each component has been linked within the Delft-FEWS forecasting ‘shell’, and subject to long-term performance testing using achieved weather forecasts.  These tests simulate how the system would have performed had it been in operation historically, and provides a means to further calibrate the system to increase its performance being used operationally.