Merry Christmas from the JBP team, and a reminder for us Australians living through 40 degree days and a continuing drought, that we are actually in storm season.
Pulling together data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Severe Storms Archive, we see that even in this hot weather we are moving into the peak cyclone months between December to March. This 'storm season' trend is quite similar to other states but for different weather events - typically convective thunderstorms in NSW and Victoria (South Australia is the exception which receives most of its rainfall during winter).
For the Australian 2019–20 summer/wet season we are expecting fewer than average tropical cyclones. This means less than our typical 10-13 events that form in nearby waters, of which four typically make it across our coast. But even with a lower outlook it's highly unlikely that we will be missed completely - with at least one cyclone recorded every season since the 1970s.
Over the New Years break keep an eye on the latest forecasts from the BoM of course, but for those interested in tracking systems ever earlier I have added links to my favourite sites below. Both the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) and Tropical Tidbits are starting to show activity in the southern hemisphere.
There is no current risk for Australia, with the storm 97P near Tonga to dissipate as it heads southwest. The newly formed Tropical Storm Phanfone is heading north, expected to cross the Philippines on the 25 Dec.
Good luck to our friends in the Philippines, and for Australians we will see you in 2020 to continue our work in Natural Disasters.
Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/